The newly listed UltraGreen.ai has raised serious questions among investors, analysts, and observers alike. Behind its futuristic branding, many observers believe the company is fundamentally a legacy dye seller attempting to capitalize on the AI branding boom.
## 1. The “AI-Washing” Problem
Despite the “.ai” appended to its name, UltraGreen’s revenue engine remains tied almost entirely to Indocyanine Green (ICG).
In FY2024, ICG accounted for **94.2%** of total revenue — a hallmark of single-product dependence.
The touted “AI platform” is early-stage, with near-zero revenue contribution. This has led many to liken the strategy to the **dot-com era**, where companies added buzzwords to inflate valuation multiples.
## 2. Supply Chain Fragility
UltraGreen does not manufacture its own products. Instead, it depends on contract manufacturers—with its key active ingredient currently sourced primarily from **one supplier**.
This creates:
- Single-point failure risk
- Little bargaining power
- Exposure to delays
A disruption in 2024 already caused months-long bottlenecks.
Critics argue that one factory incident could temporarily wipe out inventory.
## 3. Weakening Financials
UltraGreen’s recent financials show multiple stress indicators:
- Net margins fell from **47.7%** → **36.6%**
- FX losses totaled **US$7.0M** in 1H2025
- The IPO price implies an **82.3% dilution** relative to NAV
These trends point toward strained profitability and treasury mismanagement.
## 4. Compliance Red Flags
The prospectus discloses:
- A **“major deficiency”** flagged by Irish regulators (HPRA)
- Liability surrounding **off-label usage**
- U.S. market restrictions due to **competitor exclusivity** until 2026
Such issues highlight compliance vulnerability.
## 5. SGX Structural Risk
Industry commentary suggests the Singapore Exchange (SGX-ST) faces:
- Competency gaps in reviewing complex listings
- Over-analysis of minor issues
Critics argue this environment may enable companies to slip through with optimistic narratives despite financial red flags.
## 6. Ownership Concerns
Post-IPO, the Renew Group retains **~61.9%** control.
This means:
- Minority shareholders have limited influence
- Potential conflicts of interest persist due to overlapping leadership roles.
## 7. Technological & Ultragreen Product Obsolescence
UltraGreen’s reliance on ICG faces new threats:
- Emerging **spectral imaging** technologies that don’t require injection dyes
- A recently sold PACS business, reducing proven tech revenue
- An AI platform that the prospectus admits may contain **bugs and defects**
This raises doubts about whether the company’s pivot toward AI is credible or merely reactive.
## Conclusion
UltraGreen.ai’s prospectus, corporate structure, and market positioning collectively reveal a legacy business with a modern label.
Investors should approach with careful due diligence.
This analysis is based solely on the UltraGreen.ai Limited Prospectus dated 26 Nov 2025 and is provided for informational and educational purposes only.